【Game Development】The Collapse of the Game Development Industry is Now, and Now is the Best Time to Become a Game Developer

The gaming industry is facing its third historical collapse.Most people are probably hesitant to enter the gaming industry now.However, I believe the collapse of the gaming industry is precisely the best time to enter it.

Historical Context

Before explaining why, let's first discuss the historical context.
The gaming industry has collapsed twice in the past.

The first collapse occurred globally in 1977.
At that time, the market was flooded with low-quality Pong clones, causing chaos.
This led to the decline of dedicated game consoles for single games and the rise of consoles that used interchangeable game cartridges.

The second collapse happened in 1983 in the North American market.
A flood of low-quality, unauthorized games caused retailers and consumers to lose interest in games.
As a result, market dominance shifted from the U.S. to Japan, and Nintendo introduced a licensing system for console game development.

Now, we are on the brink of a third collapse.
This time, the cause is the mass production of games pushing LGBT propaganda, wokeness, and DIE (Diversity, Equity, Inclusion) agendas.
These games are not fun and exist solely to promote specific political messages.

In the 2010s, something happened, and Japan lost market dominance back to the U.S.
This was because half of Japan's gaming industry tried to imitate the American approach.
Meanwhile, China and South Korea stuck to Japan's former style and are currently the most profitable.

For this reason, I believe the current gaming industry collapse will be limited to Japan and the West.
China and South Korea seem to be doing fine for now, but their weakness is that most of their games are mobile gacha games.
In the long term, this could lead to a different kind of collapse in those countries.

Why Now is the Best Time to Become a Game Developer

1. Less Competition

When the industry collapses, I predict that only indie game developers and a handful of major companies will survive.
In particular, Nintendo and its close partner companies are likely to survive because they avoid woke propaganda.

Game Freak and SEGA might also be fine for different reasons.
Despite recent failures, Game Freak has IPs that continue to generate massive profits with no signs of slowing down.
SEGA has Sonic, which often appears in low-quality games but remains highly popular.

In this situation, growing from an indie developer to A, AA, or AAA status is much easier with fewer obstacles.
Every AAA studio started as an indie developer; they just weren't called that back then.

2. Decision-Making Power

After an industry collapse, those who attempt to rebuild it will shape its direction.
Historically, successful rebuilds have always been a reaction to the causes of the collapse.

For example, the first collapse was caused by dedicated consoles that could only play one game, almost always Pong.
The second collapse was due to low-quality consumer games made and sold without quality control.

Now is the perfect opportunity for true gamers to take the lead and create rules that prevent forced censorship or turning games into political tools.

3. The Birth of New Consoles

When you think of consoles, you probably think of Nintendo, PlayStation, and Xbox.
The Nintendo Switch 2 has already been announced, and there are rumors that Sony is preparing the PlayStation 6 within a few years.
Meanwhile, Microsoft might exit the console market and shift to a platform like Steam.

However, the Xbox Series X/S and PlayStation 5 are struggling globally, with few exclusive titles. In Japan, Xbox is almost completely ignored.
Additionally, PlayStation's excessive censorship has made many people reluctant to buy a PS5.

If this continues, Nintendo could be the only console manufacturer left.
However, after an industry collapse, up to three indie studios might announce their own consoles, possibly designed like a Raspberry Pi.
This may not happen, but if it does, it would be an exciting development.

4. Game Development is Easier Than Ever

This is both an advantage and a disadvantage.

The advantage is that inexperienced developers can learn quickly.
The disadvantage is that a flood of inexperienced developers could release low-quality games, potentially causing a fourth collapse.

That said, game engines like Unity and Unreal Engine, and APIs like Vulkan, OpenGL, Metal, and DirectX, are already widely available and unlikely to disappear soon.

In the worst case, Unity, Unreal, and Metal could fade due to the gaming industry's decline.
However, Vulkan and OpenGL are open-source and will likely persist even if games stop being made.

DirectX, being a Microsoft product, is likely to survive even if it becomes unpopular.
(For example, Microsoft doesn't easily give up on unpopular products like Edge or Internet Explorer.)

Game Development is a Special Industry

In the near future, not only is the game development industry likely to collapse, but the web development industry is also expected to collapse.
However, a unique feature of game development is that once the industry collapses, it creates a golden opportunity for rapid rebuilding.
In contrast, if the web development industry collapses, rebuilding could take years.

The reason is that game development requires high creativity.
History has repeatedly shown that those who go against the mainstream ultimately win.
In web development, however, you're expected to "follow the trend" and immediately jump to the next trend when the current one ends (e.g., "cloud" → "blockchain" → "deep learning" → "SDGs" → "AI").

If you don't follow trends, even if you have the best technology, you'll be laughed at.

The gaming industry has trends too (mobile games, DLC, loot boxes, etc.).
However, you can still be recognized in the market without following them.
In contrast, in the web industry, you must follow all trends to be recognized.

Reference: The Collapse of the Desktop Development Industry

The desktop development industry collapsed years ago.
Development with .NET Framework or Java declined as most companies shifted to mobile app development for iOS and Android.

Current desktop development centers around low-quality Electron web apps, command-line utilities, and Adobe products, with much of the industry moving to mobile development.
Mobile development is currently the most popular industry, but I believe it will collapse rapidly once young people lose interest in smartphones.

This change is inevitable but might take a few years.
However, once mobile development collapses, it's unlikely to recover, much like desktop development.

That said, embedded development and robotics are still thriving and likely to continue for a long time.

Challenges

For a new gaming industry to function long-term, several challenges need to be addressed.

In particular, many companies hold excessive patents, which significantly restrict new and existing indie developers.
In many cases, large companies misuse patents to hinder indie developers' success.

Recent Example: Palworld Lawsuit

A recent example is "Palworld".
PocketPair developed a highly successful game but was sued by Game Freak and Nintendo.

Before Palworld, they made games that could have caused bigger legal issues but went unnoticed because they weren't successful.
However, Palworld's massive success made it a target for lawsuits.

This is why I believe software patents should be completely abolished.
Old-guard companies, including those already bankrupt, are likely to misuse patents to hinder the new gaming industry's growth.

Why Industries Collapse

It's important to understand that trends and industries ultimately collapse, but the reasons differ.

Trends collapse when too many companies try to jump in.
Industries collapse when the market is flooded with low-quality products, leaving almost no good ones.

Example of Trend Collapse: Online Streaming

When online streaming first emerged, Netflix nearly eliminated movie piracy entirely.
Netflix offered a better service than piracy, with all movies available for a flat, unbeatable price.

However, every company started its own streaming service, each with exclusive content.
Now, there are over 100 different services, each costing three times more than early Netflix, with many imposing censorship or viewing restrictions.

As a result, movie piracy has returned on an even larger scale.

The same happened with trends like cloud, SaaS, and blockchain.
Now, the same is happening with AI.

Every major company is developing its own chatbot or adding chatbot features to existing services.
Sadly, the company I work for is doing the same...

Example of Industry Collapse: Gaming Industry

In the gaming industry, many companies are releasing low-quality games steeped in woke ideology.
These games are disliked by nearly everyone, and developers make excuses about targeting a "broader audience", but sales are plummeting.

THQ has already gone bankrupt, and Ubisoft is likely next.
This is just the beginning.

Companies often claim "piracy causes sales to drop", but this is a lie.
As I've explained many times, only bad products don't sell.

People who use pirated versions fall into three categories:

People living in countries where the product isn't accessible.

People who can't afford it now but will buy it when they can.

People who try it and buy it if they like it.

If a game isn't fun, no one will buy it.
This is a free market.
This isn't a communist society where companies are entitled to consumers' money regardless of quality.
To earn money, you need to provide valuable products!

For more details, see this article:
【Pirated Software】Why Does It Exist? (Japanese-only)

That's all